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sir_quirky_k (

sir_quirky_k) wrote,
@ 2009-05-15 12:10:00

The draw is in...
...Norway are to perform 20th.

What's Oslo like at this time of year?

Israel are second, and will be blown out of the water by France if reports I have heard are correct; they could easily come last, and Ladbrokes quote them as 3/1 favourites to do just that and 8/1 to accrue nil points. Sweden (4th) are still quoted at odds-on on Betfair to finish ahead of Finland (24th and right after Jade). As you know, I very rarely bet. As you also know, 2.02 for anything drawn 24th to beat anything drawn 4th approaches the heights of ridiculousness. They're also quoted at 100 for the wonning, 40 to beat everyone bar Norway, 13.5 to finish in the top four and 3.9 to finish in the top 10. All of these are exceptionally tempting, and a fiver on each of these turns the total bet of One Geordie into:

* £747.65 if Finland win
* £272.65 if Finland are second to Norway
* £82.65 if Finland are second to anyone else, or third, or fourth
* £18.53 if Finland are between fifth and tenth

Alternatively, sticking the entirety of my Geordie into a top-10 finish pays £74.10 if they get it. (All these are based on the 5% Betfair commission rate.)

For a top-four bet, the best way to go is with William Hill, quoting one-fifth the odds for the top four and 66/1 for the wonning. That translates into 13.4 for the top four, without Betfair's 5% commission. Furthermore, there's the new-customer matched free bet offer to consider - a maximum of £50. Placing the first bet on something that is essentially guaranteed (Middlesbrough for relegation at 1.05 - the easiest £2.50 I'm ever likely to earn) would free up the matched bet at nominal risk, and essentially give me a risk-free shot at over £650.

This is what I am quite likely to do. I very rarely bet, but...

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That draw in full

daweaver
2009-05-15 05:26 pm UTC (link)

* Seven fairly slow songs to begin with, then a run of seven uptempo numbers towards the end.

* Very good draw for Greece, the first decent fast song.

* A nightmare for Malta and Estonia, going slap-bang next to each other. Ditto Portugal and Iceland.

* Sweden and Croatia will cancel each other out.

* Whichever of Bosnia and Moldova appears before the break will do very well: those are both show-stopping performances.

* Denmark at 16 is an ominously good draw. I can't stand the song, but the first of a run of similar songs is going to do well.

* Can't help but think that Norway and Ukraine will cancel each other out a little.

* The draw's been very kind to the UK, ending that block of fast numbers.

Israel will not get nothing, as France will send something: televoters have sent an average of 6 points in the past five years.

Finland to beat Sweden is almost a given: the expected minimum from televoters to Sweden is 18 points, and I can't see the juries giving much. On the other hand, Finland only averages 17 from televoters, the juries will be less friendly. It depends on whether Ukraine turns in a decent performance tomorrow.

Personally, I think the value is with Bosnia, Iceland, and Portugal. But then, I've only checked the betting to work out when the faves are voting: there's a big block half-way through, and the winner should become clear after Ukraine but before Portugal.

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Re: That draw in full

sir_quirky_k
2009-05-16 09:53 am UTC (link)

Norway cancelling out Ukraine is good news for Finland, who will gain plenty of votes from following something very different. I have placed my £20 on them to beat Sweden at 2.12 (!!) - once the 5% commission has been reclaimed, that'll be a £21.28 profit if it comes off.

Signing up with Hills is proving a nightmare because of an insistence upon MasterCard InsecureCode... but crikey I'm doing it, Finland have drifted to 80/1, making a top-four slot a 16/1 shot. Potential winnings on that one now £800, and the only way of losing that £50 being a Middlesbrough escape act...

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Re: That draw in full

sir_quirky_k
2009-05-16 10:43 pm UTC (link)

Good news is that the free bet only comes in when the first bet is settled. The Middlesbrough bet, strictly speaking, is not settled.

Bad news is that I bet a significant amount of money on a top-ten finish and, er, oh.

I was thinking today that the utility of the 'thrill of the chase', something which some statistically-minded players at the Bad Shirt Casino have referred to, was of significance to me. I have now realised that the pain of defeat more than cancels this out, and will never bet again.

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	As the rain gently falls on the morning after... daweaver 2009-05-17 09:03 am UTC (link)
	It has been an expensive education, but I think you've learned a lot in the past twenty-four hours. Bookmakers are in it for themselves, there's no such thing as a sure-fire bet, and the only way to learn some things is by experience. (Reply to this)(Parent)(Thread)

Re: As the rain gently falls on the morning after...

sir_quirky_k
2009-05-17 02:30 pm UTC (link)

Not only that, but that I really do have an addictive personality. I have applied the logic to my avoidance of recreational drugs and even sex, but the belief that I was letting myself in for, if not a sure-fire bet, but at least an EV+ one, lured me in.

I was prepared to lose, but genuinely considered the gamble to be sufficiently EV+ to be worth taking. Of course, the nature of gambling on sporting or similar events is that the probabilities are unknown and part of the enjoyment is predicting which ones the bookmakers (or in the case of Betfair, the collective) have misjudged. Indeed, I believed I could potentially have had an awful lot of fun doing just that for small stakes in the future, but now do not trust myself to stop this from turning into the very sort of addiction I have criticised a certain television show for fostering.

This sort of thing might have come out in CBT sessions or similar, but it would probably have cost even more than I lost last night.

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